Chapter 3: Signal Detection

Since prevention is always better than cure, crisis managers should be able to detect signals pointing to a potential crisis and work towards averting it. Most if not all crisis always gives early warning signs (clues or prodromes) which if heeded and managed well can avert a lot of crisis. The draw back is that in most cases than not, the signals are either ignored or we simply fail to understand their meaning. The signal detection stage as presented by Coombs (1999) in this chapter falls under a precrisis phase and is considered as a sub-stage. For Mitroff (1994) five-phased and Fink (1996) four-staged models of crisis communication, this stage will be the first phase defining a crisis. The chapter is an attempt to provide necessary tools and tips for detecting potential crisis (scanning process) and responding to them.

Points to consider are 1) examination of scanning resources 2) the crisis sensing process and 3) monitoring to avert the crisis.

1. Examination of existing scanning resources: In order to effectively work towards detecting potential areas of crisis, it is important to know where and how to start looking so as to have a clear ‘feel’ of possibilities. Three areas for consideration here are;

Issues management – any problem or issue with a potential of ruining an organization should be identified and proactively addressed to avert or lessen the potential impacts. While issue management mostly focuses on concerns regarding organizational external environment, internal concerns can also play a critical role. Consider issues and their link to potential areas of crisis.
Risk assessment – since risk factors are part and parcel any organizational operations, it becomes imperative to identify the risk factors and asses their potential of developing into crisis. Examples of risk factors are competition, production process and personnel. Risk assessment mainly emphasis on the internal environment of an organisation.
Stakeholder relationships – organizational stakeholders can be classified into two, primary and secondary. In practice all organizations exhibit a form of relationship or interdependence with its stakeholders. The power of the primary stakeholders lies in the fact that it is “difficult and often impossible to replace the contributions that they provide the organizations’ (p. 21). This however, does not undermine the role of secondary stakeholders because history has shown the power of media and other secondary stakeholders. Coombs (1999) notes that the organizational-stakeholder relationship is a direct measure of how stakeholders feel about an organization.

2. Crisis sensing process – from the three organizational areas identified above, a three staged process of crisis sensing process can take place. The process entails the following:

i) Identification of information sources – for each of the three organizational units examined above, potential crisis sources are identified. Table 3.3 (p.23) outlines various sources relevant for each of the three organizational units. Sources showing emerging issues, trends, and stories from similar organizations, thread of discussions, organizational ethical climate, stakeholders’ dissatisfaction and rumors should be identified.
ii) Information collection – the second step is data or information collection. Accurate and reliable information is collected by way of using appropriate tools and methods common to any basic research such as interviews, surveys, content analysis etc.
iii) Information analysis and evaluation – the step entails making sense of data collected and finding meaning and implication of the information found to the organization viability. During analysis, both the issues, risks and stakeholders are subjected to an evaluation criterion that will determine both the likelihood and the impact of the crisis potential. If both the likelihood and the impact are considered to be high enough to spark a crisis, preventative strategies are developed.
3. Monitoring – after identifying the potential of a warning sign developing into a crisis, its development is followed and assessed with time. The process is continuous and will be repeated but this time very detailed and focused.

A schematic flow diagram illustrates the process (failed to paste...unfortunately).